In March 2026, UK house prices experienced their first monthly decline of the year, slipping by 0.5% after modest gains in January and February. However, the West Midlands stood out as a bright spot, with average home values rising by 1.7% to £265,126, bucking the national downward trend.
According to Halifax, the average UK property price in March was £299,677. Annual growth also slowed, easing to 0.8% from February’s 1.2%. Amanda Bryden, Halifax’s head of mortgages, attributes the market’s cooling to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. She explains, “Concerns about rising energy prices have increased inflation expectations, leading to higher mortgage rates and dampening confidence in potential interest rate cuts this year.”
Bryden adds reassurance, noting that the recent mortgage rate increases are milder than those during the 2022 mini-budget crisis. Many homeowners remain protected by fixed-rate deals, which may help house prices stay resilient despite the uncertainty impacting market activity in the near term.
READ MORE: Birmingham Trails Behind French Twin City in Tram Network Size
READ MORE: ‘Supremely efficient’ cordless vacuum now £120 off as buyers praise ‘superb technology’
Regionally, Northern Ireland saw the strongest annual price growth in the UK, up 8.7% to £224,809, followed by Scotland with a 4.4% rise to £222,716. Wales recorded a gentler increase of 1.6%, reaching £230,909.
Within England, northern regions continue to lead house price growth. The North East experienced a 5% annual increase, with property values averaging £184,119. The North West posted 3.1% growth, with homes valued at £247,442 on average.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, forecasts that while mortgage rates may gradually decline, they are unlikely to return to the low levels seen before the Middle East conflict. He cautions that this will keep demand and prices steady but restrained throughout the year.
Mortgage expert Karen Noye of Quilter highlights that recent borrowing cost rises typically impact house prices with a delay. She notes, “The future of house prices will largely hinge on the ongoing geopolitical situation.” Noye advises homeowners to secure mortgage rates early to navigate the current unpredictability while maintaining flexibility.
Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson reflects on the shifting market landscape: “Despite a positive start to the year with increased viewings and consumer optimism, many low-rate mortgage deals have been withdrawn as economic uncertainties mount.”
Nevertheless, agents like Amy Reynolds of Antony Roberts affirm that demand remains strong among serious buyers, with ongoing second viewings and sales progressing at usual seasonal levels. Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, concurs that sales agreements are holding steady.
The housing market shows signs of cautious resilience amid global uncertainties and mortgage rate adjustments, with regional variations shaping the overall outlook.