The UK is gearing up for a sharp drop in temperatures, with forecasts predicting a polar blast that could see mercury fall to -7C in Scotland and around -3C in parts of northern England. This cold snap is linked to a significant disruption in the Polar Vortex, triggered by an unusually early Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
In recent weeks, the UK has experienced unsettled weather marked by frequent rain and mild temperatures. However, as the second half of November approaches, a high-pressure system is expected to dominate, ushering in icy Arctic winds and much colder conditions across the country.
The Polar Vortex—a swirling mass of frigid air encircling the Earth’s poles—has weakened due to changes in stratospheric wind patterns. When the vortex weakens, cold air can surge southward into lower latitudes, often bringing heavy snowfall and blizzards alongside steep temperature drops.
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Forecast maps from WXCharts illustrate the severity of this upcoming blast, showing temperatures plunging close to or below zero early next week. By Wednesday, conditions could hit lows of -7C in Scotland, -3C in northern England, and -2C further south.
This cold air mass is expected to collide with moist Atlantic air, creating prime conditions for snow across many parts of the UK.
The Met Office confirms the transition: “By the weekend, much of the UK will be under a cooler airmass with overnight frosts in places. Showers will still occur but it will be a drier and brighter spell overall. The south and southwest may see some patchy rain and cloudier conditions before clearing.”
Looking ahead to November 16-25, the Met Office expects colder and drier conditions to prevail, especially in central and northern regions, with overnight frosts and occasional wintry showers on high ground. The south may remain cloudier and wetter initially, though conditions are likely to clear.
While later in the period there may be more changeable weather including some rain, showers, and possible hill snow in northern areas, overall temperatures are expected to hover near the seasonal average.