Thousands of individuals are set to face tighter restrictions on accessing Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) benefits as part of a new crackdown on migration. However, recent analysis of Labour government data suggests that the financial savings from these changes will be significantly lower than initially claimed by Birmingham MP Shabana Mahmood.
While Mahmood has asserted that reducing migrants' access to benefits will save the public finances £10 billion, the data indicates the actual savings amount to approximately £600 million—just 6 percent of her forecasted figure.
The proposed reforms will extend the qualifying period for settled status from five to ten years for most migrants. Mahmood argues this is necessary to prevent what she describes as a “£10 billion drain” on public finances and to ease the growing pressure on vital public services such as housing and healthcare.
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She stated, “We have never in the history of this country experienced such high levels of low-skilled migration in such a short period. Based on findings from the Migration Advisory Committee, the lifetime cost to the taxpayer will be £10 billion, borne by working people in this country.”
In contrast, Max Wilkinson, the Liberal Democrats’ home affairs spokesperson, criticized the government’s figures as a “fiscal fantasy,” highlighting the valuable contributions care workers and their families make to communities and the economy. He warned that forcing care workers into “a decade of uncertainty” prioritizes cruelty over practicality and risks losing essential tax revenue that supports public services.
Wilkinson urged the government to develop an immigration system that supports both the economy and public services rather than perpetuating insecurity for migrants. He also called for full transparency, requesting the government publish comprehensive data on the issue.
A spokesperson from the Home Office defended the policy, emphasizing the published methodology behind their estimates. The home secretary maintains that without the proposed “earned settlement” measures, the lifetime cost related to care workers and their dependents would indeed reach £10 billion.
The spokesperson added, “We welcome those who contribute to our national life, but permanent residency should be earned, not automatic. We must be upfront about the impact of settlement grants to hundreds of thousands of low-skilled migrants and are committed to restoring order.”