The number of children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) receiving formalised support plans is expected to double to one in ten as families rush to submit Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) applications before upcoming government reforms come into effect.
EHCPs are detailed plans developed collaboratively by a school’s special educational needs coordinator (SENCO) and professionals such as educational psychologists. They outline the specific provisions required to support a child’s educational needs.
Bill Revans, spokesperson for SEND at the County Councils Network and Liberal Democrat leader of Somerset council, highlighted a significant surge in assessment requests since the government announced their planned reforms earlier this year. He noted that while previous forecasts estimated 840,000 EHCPs by 2028-29, current trends suggest this figure may be exceeded, intensifying financial pressures on local councils. Despite government commitments to reduce 90% of existing SEND deficits accumulated over the past decade, Revans warned that debt is likely to be incurred again by next year.
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In February, the government announced generational reforms aimed at improving outcomes for children with SEND by ending the “one size fits all” education system. Notably, the reforms will introduce a new legal duty for schools to create individual support plans (ISPs) for every child with SEND.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, confirmed that the rising number of EHCP applications aligns with reports from school leaders. He suggested that the government’s intention to limit future EHCPs to children with the most complex needs may have prompted families and schools to apply before the changes take effect.
Madeleine Cassidy, chief executive of Ipsea, expressed concerns that the proposed SEND reforms might exacerbate existing challenges by removing statutory protections and vital safeguards for children and families when support is delayed, denied, or inadequate.
Additionally, William Burns, social care policy adviser at the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, pointed out that while government modelling indicates demand for EHCPs could return to current levels by 2035, the present demand is already placing considerable strain on the system. He questioned the sustainability of anticipating similar volumes of need, even within a reformed framework.