Provisional data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics suggests that the full, or new, state pension will rise by 3.9% next year, amounting to an increase of £489. This would bring the full annual amount to £13,037.
The 3.9% figure corresponds to the average growth in weekly wages recorded between May and July, which is the period used to calculate the Labour Party government’s triple lock guarantee for pensions. This increase is expected to be higher than the current rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation.
The full state pension typically applies to men born after 1951 and women born after 1953. The Bank of England forecasts that inflation will peak at 3.2% this year during October and November, with September’s rate predicted to be lower.
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It is important to note that these figures are provisional and will be officially confirmed or possibly revised in October.
This announcement follows Andy Burnham’s commitment to maintaining the triple lock, a policy that ensures state pensions rise by the highest of earnings growth, inflation, or 2.5%. However, the policy has faced criticism. The Resolution Foundation, a think tank once led by the current pensions minister Torsten Bell, has called for the triple lock to be scrapped, describing it as fiscally unsustainable and unfair, as it causes pensions to rise by more than the earnings of a typical worker.
Similarly, the Tony Blair Institute, led by the former prime minister, labels the triple lock an “unaffordable” policy. Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has described it as “unaffordable and immoral” and a “drag on economic growth.”
In the 2025/26 tax year, the government is projected to have spent £146.1 billion on the state pension. Over the past 15 years, increases triggered by earnings growth and inflation-as opposed to the baseline 2.5%-have accounted for the majority of triple lock pension rises.
Investment platform AJ Bell reports that more than two-thirds of the “baby boomer” generation wish to see the triple lock maintained, whereas only 14% of Generation Z and 22% of millennials support its continuation. The government will likely need to address this notable difference in opinion in the future.