After a record-breaking finish to May, the UK is on course for another significant heatwave, with temperatures expected to reach as high as 32°C in several counties. Despite a quieter start to June, meteorological models from WX Charts and the ECMWF, relying on data from Met Desk, show a clear trend towards rising temperatures from June 15 onward.
The heatwave is predicted to peak around June 16, with 21 counties potentially experiencing temperatures above 30°C. Regions expected to see highs of 32°C include Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Cheshire, Shropshire, and Lincolnshire. Additional counties on the list are Staffordshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Northamptonshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Essex, Surrey, Kent, and Berkshire.
Looking at the fortnight from June 15 to June 28, the BBC Weather team forecasts warmer and drier conditions than usual. High pressure systems are likely to dominate much of the UK, particularly across England and Wales, promoting above-average early-summer temperatures. This setup also tends to suppress rainfall, making dry spells more probable.
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There is a potential for pressure systems to develop over Scandinavia, which could reinforce warm southerly winds. However, if the high pressure weakens or shifts northwards, it might allow low-pressure weather systems to approach from the south. This could lead to a rise in heavy showers and thunderstorms towards late June. The precise placement of the high pressure will be critical — a more northerly or westerly position could introduce cooler conditions.
The BBC Weather team plans to update the outlook on Friday to confirm whether the dominance of high pressure will continue and to provide a glimpse into early July’s weather trends.