Midlands Faces Growing Drought Threat Amid Persistent Dry Conditions

The Midlands is confronting the very real possibility of widespread drought next year unless the region experiences sustained heavy rainfall this winter, the Environment Agency has warned. This caution comes on the heels of 2025’s exceptionally dry spring and summer combined with multiple intense heatwaves, which have left large parts of the country enduring severe water shortages.

Despite some recent rainfall, vast swathes of England remain in “exceptionally dry conditions,” with the North West showing signs of recovery. England has now seen below-average rainfall for eight of the past ten months, with only January and September exceeding normal precipitation levels. Between January and October 2025, the nation received just 83% of its typical rainfall, marking the driest spring in 132 years alongside the hottest summer ever recorded.

Drought conditions will only be declared over once water reserves are fully replenished, and the Environment Agency stresses that the current situation remains precarious. If winter proves drier than usual, the majority or potentially all of England could enter drought by spring 2026. Such conditions could prompt hosepipe bans, threaten agricultural productivity, endanger wildlife, and increase wildfire risks during the summer months.

Moreover, parched soils raise concerns over future flash flooding. Dry, compacted earth struggles to absorb heavy rainfall, causing rapid surface runoff and increased flood risk once conditions do improve.

The Met Office forecasts potential heavy rainfall through Saturday but warns that November through January is likely to be drier than average—factors that could worsen drought conditions. Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency, urged continued water conservation: “There will be a drought next year unless we receive sustained winter rainfall. The severity depends on the weather and how effectively we manage our water use now. The public has done well conserving water this summer and must maintain these efforts even during wetter spells.”

Water companies are encouraged to intensify customer engagement on water-saving measures and address leakage issues robustly. Farmers are also advised to adapt by selecting drought-resistant crops, refilling reservoirs promptly, and collaborating within local water-sharing agreements.

The Environment Agency outlines three possible winter rainfall scenarios, each shaping the outlook for the coming year:

Average Winter Rainfall: Most regions would see conditions improve or return to normal by March 2026, except for parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire still facing prolonged dryness. Public water supplies and canal capacities would recover, though some wildlife, especially amphibians, may suffer a challenging breeding season.
80% of Average Rainfall: Nearly the entire country, except Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cheshire, Cumbria, and Lancashire, would face drought or extended dry spells by early next year.
60% of Average Rainfall: Severe drought would grip all regions by spring 2026, leading to widespread hosepipe restrictions, diminished agricultural irrigation, impacts on recreational facilities, and potential lasting environmental damage.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist Will Lang highlighted the inherent uncertainty in seasonal forecasting but noted the increased probability of a dry period. He emphasized the natural variability across England, meaning some areas may receive more rain than others, offering limited reprieve in certain locales.

Water Minister Emma Hardy affirmed the government’s commitment to addressing the water crisis through collaboration with the National Drought Group and water companies. She underscored the challenges posed by climate change, which is increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and floods. The government’s response includes investments in new reservoirs and infrastructure to reduce leakage, crucial steps toward enhancing long-term water resilience.