The Beast from the East, the severe cold weather event that caused snow chaos across the UK in 2018, could be making a return. While temperatures are expected to moderate next weekend, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) may increase the likelihood of cold weather returning later in November, according to meteorologists.
Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon told the Mail that indicators point to a possible SSW occurring near the end of November, which would be unusually early in the winter season. “Although we occasionally see such events in November, it is relatively early for this to happen,” Dixon explained. “This suggests a higher chance of a cold start to winter than in recent years.”
Nick Finnis of Netweather TV shed light on the atmospheric dynamics behind this phenomenon. He said, “Colder conditions are likely to ease next weekend as winds turn more westerly and Atlantic weather systems bring milder air, rain, and wind. However, models forecast a disruption high in the stratosphere over the northern hemisphere’s polar region.”
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Finnis detailed that if winds at the 10 hPa pressure level around 60°N latitude shift from their usual westerly pattern and reverse direction, this marks a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This warming originates over the Canadian side of the polar region and displaces the stratospheric polar vortex typically centered over the Arctic towards northern Russia and northeastern Europe.
The potential SSW event is predicted around November 25 or 26 and is driven by warming from the troposphere below, indicating coupling between the two atmospheric layers. This connection means changes in the stratosphere can rapidly influence weather patterns closer to the ground.
A displaced polar vortex could force cold Arctic air to move southwards into northern Europe in the weeks following the event. This shift could bring bouts of colder and possibly wintry weather to the UK through late November and into December, following a brief period of milder conditions.
In summary, while a period of milder weather is imminent, the return of Beast from the East–style cold snaps is possible if the predicted Sudden Stratospheric Warming takes place, potentially signaling a colder winter ahead.