Al Carns, the MP for Birmingham Selly Oak, is being touted as a dark horse candidate for the next Prime Minister, with bookmakers offering 10-1 odds on his potential leadership. Despite entering politics less than two years ago, Carns has quickly gained attention alongside prominent Labour figures like Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and Wes Streeting.
The backdrop to these rumours is growing concern within the Labour Party over potential setbacks in the upcoming local elections, particularly in strongholds such as Birmingham. Such losses could spark calls among MPs for a leadership change, raising questions about the future of Keir Starmer’s premiership.
However, Carns is clear and resolute in his response to the speculation. During a walkabout in his constituency—covering areas like Kings Norton, Cotteridge, and Stirchley—he emphasized the importance of political stability in times of international crisis and domestic challenges.
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He stresses that now is not the time for internal party upheaval, particularly given ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the economic hardships many face amid the cost of living crisis. Drawing on his experience as a military leader, Carns argues that continuity in government enables effective crisis management and prevents paralysis caused by constant personnel changes.
“Anyone who believes they could do better hasn’t fully grasped the complexities of the Prime Minister’s role,” he states plainly. He praises Starmer for his leadership during the crisis, especially in convening crucial government meetings.
When pressed on Labour’s struggles with messaging—often criticized for alienating core supporters on issues like cost of living, Gaza, and immigration—Carns acknowledges communication has lagged behind modern consumption habits. He notes the party is pivoting towards digital strategies to better connect with voters who now consume news in quick, bite-sized formats and through social media.
Carns also highlights the challenge posed by misinformation and automated “bot” activity on social media platforms, sometimes linked to foreign interests, which complicates the political discourse. He draws attention to disinformation campaigns, such as those targeting the Scottish National Party, and their unexpected geopolitical connections.
On his own leadership ambitions, Carns is unequivocal: his sole focus is serving the country and making a difference in his current role. He expresses frustration that every initiative he undertakes is prematurely labeled as a leadership bid, which he believes detracts from his ability to deliver tangible results.
Despite the swirling speculation, Carns appears committed to his responsibilities as Armed Forces Minister and veterans’ advocate, roles he has taken on swiftly since his election in 2024. His background is formidable—rising to Colonel in the Royal Marines, receiving the Military Cross, and undertaking secret missions in Afghanistan. He is the most decorated soldier elected to Parliament since World War II.
Standing 6'2" with a commanding presence and a no-nonsense demeanor, Carns is seen as a straightforward, level-headed figure with streetwise sensibilities shaped by his upbringing in Aberdeen and military service. However, he remains a relative newcomer to politics, closely aligned with Labour leadership decisions since his arrival in the House of Commons.
Rumours suggest Carns was strategically placed in the safe Labour seat of Selly Oak, succeeding Steve McCabe, who reportedly accepted a Lords seat to clear the way. Within days of being elected, Carns was appointed veterans minister and soon after elevated to Armed Forces Minister. Outside politics, he’s achieved remarkable feats, including breaking a world record by traveling from London to the summit of Mount Everest and back in five days alongside former military colleagues.
For now, Carns insists that he is focused on the pressing issues facing both Birmingham and the nation, and has no plans to pursue the premiership. Whether this stance is genuine or a calculated deflection remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Al Carns is a significant presence in British politics to watch.