Birmingham City have surged back into the Championship play-off conversation following three consecutive home wins, each boasting four goals. Just weeks ago, Chris Davies’ squad found themselves in 15th place, cautiously eyeing the table above. That has changed dramatically.
Impressive victories against Portsmouth, Millwall, and Norwich City have sparked renewed optimism among supporters, especially considering pre-season talk of back-to-back promotions. With the Blues now sitting ninth, just a single point shy of the play-off positions and three points behind Stoke City in third, the striking partnership of Jay Stansfield and Marvin Ducksch is proving particularly potent.
Despite fan excitement, the statistical analysts at Opta offer a more measured forecast. Their model predicts Birmingham City will finish exactly where they are now—ninth—securing around 66.18 points. This tally places them 2.5 points behind Bristol City, the current sixth-placed side. The same projection sees Coventry and Middlesbrough earning automatic promotion, with Ipswich, Stoke, and Leicester rounding out the play-off spots.
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Opta assigns Birmingham just a 23.88% chance of making the post-season play-offs and a slim 4.68% chance of winning promotion, whether automatically or via the play-offs. Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, and Oxford United are predicted to drop down to League One.
Interestingly, the data suggests Birmingham are underperforming relative to their Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) metrics. Their performance should arguably place them third in the league, trailing only Coventry and Ipswich.
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